Good morning and good afternoon, traders 🌅. Welcome back to Strategy Master, the only crypto newsletter that dissects market cycles and alerts you before major reversals 🔄.
Quick summary before we dive in:
- ✍️ Bitcoin’s 60-day Cycle low hit on September 6th – what’s next?
- ✍️ Ideal entry points for 1D, 3D, and 1W Cycles explained 🕵️♂️
- 🎯The 26-Week Cycle breakdown – what to watch for in 2024 📅
- 🔔 Why Bitcoin staying above $50k is key to the current cycle 💪
As anticipated, Bitcoin hit its 60-day cycle low on September 6th and has been climbing 📈 ever since. Interestingly, Bitcoin showed impressive resilience, starting its upward move even before reaching the expected bottom of the 1-week cycle (see chart below 📊).
The market is approaching its mid-cycle point
Ok, Strategy Master, this sounds great, but I missed the trade! Where are the best entry points according to Cycle theory? 🎯
No worries 😅—cycles give us the clearest signals for optimal entries. Here’s where to look:
⏳ 60-Day Cycle: The best entry comes near the cycle lows (see the pink box 📦 around early September). If you missed this one, your next chance will come in about 45 days.
📉 1-Day Cycle: Wait for the 1-day cycle to reverse from falling 📉 to rising 📈 (ideally when the indicator is below 20). The last time it flipped was on September 16th. Typically, after hitting 80, it takes ~7 days to return to 20 again.
📊 3-Day Cycle: The ideal time to enter is when the 3-day cycle indicator starts rising 📈, or when it’s below 20. However, the 1-day cycle must also be in the right position. If the 3-day indicator reverses upwards but the 1-day is still above 80 ⚖️, it’s better to wait for a cool-down. On September 17th, both the 1-day and 3-day cycles lined up perfectly.
🗓️ 1-Week Cycle: This cycle is more significant 🔑 than the 3-day because it reflects a longer trend (1-2 months 📅). You can enter once the 1-day condition is met—no need to wait for the 3-day confirmation. Again, September 17th presented a perfect setup (1-week reversal) 🎯.
Strategy Master, you’ve previously mentioned Bitcoin’s 26-week cycles. How does that fit into this picture? 🤔
Bitcoin operates on 60-day cycles, with three such cycles typically making up one 26-week cycle. In bull markets 🐂, the first 60-day cycle is usually the strongest 💥 and tends to be “right-translated” (the peak occurs in the second half of the cycle). The final cycle, however, is often “left-translated,” with the top appearing in the first 30 days. Take a look at this chart 📉:
Use 1W Cycle or Weekly Stoch RSI Indicators to help you find the bottoms
In early 2024, we saw the 26-week cycle bottom in January 🏞️, followed by a strong rally from February to March 🏁. However, after that, two left-translated 60-day cycles led us to the 26-week cycle low in July. It’s important to remember that 26-week cycles don’t always last exactly 26 weeks ⏱️.
Since 60-day cycles can vary from 45 to 68 days, 26-week cycles can stretch from 20 to 30 weeks 📅. Rarely, they can even deviate beyond that, as we saw in August 2023 when the 26-week cycle lasted just 13 days before kicking off the current bull run 🚀.
To better time these cycles, use the 1W Cycle Indicator or the Weekly Stoch RSI (set RSI and Stoch Length to 9) to identify 26-week cycle bottoms 🔻.
Ok, Master, what if the first 60-day cycle of the 26-week cycle is bearish 🐻, like it was this time?
When the first 60-day cycle is bearish 😓, the odds lean heavily toward a bearish 26-week cycle. Look back at previous bear markets 📉 and their weekly cycles to see the pattern.
Remember 2022? Yeah, nobody wants to …
If the start of the 26-week cycle doesn’t surge upward 🛫, it’s usually a signal of a bearish cycle ⚠️. In such cases, it’s often wiser to wait for the next 26-week cycle low before entering the market ⏳.
So, is the current 26-week cycle starting bearish too?
Correct! ✅ That’s why I’m not allocating heavily 💡 right now. Based on traditional weekly cycle patterns, it’s better to wait for the 26-week cycle bottom before making any major moves 📉.
Bitcoin could reverse its trend by the end of 2024
The market is in an unusual state 🌀. Both the Stoch RSI and the 1-week cycle indicator aren’t giving clear signals ❓ for the next cycle, and Bitcoin has had two failed weekly cycles in a row 🚩 (when the cycle fails to hit 80 and reverses downward). This makes it a particularly risky time ⚠️ to enter the market for the short to medium term (1-2 months 📅).
But wait … we can’t break the $50,000 level, right? 💵
We can, but if it happens, the break is likely to be brief 🌬️, making it a great buying opportunity 💼. Given the current conditions, it’s improbable that we’ll slide into a full-blown bear market 🐻 just yet. In the most likely scenario, Bitcoin will stay above $50,000 for the remainder of this 26-week cycle, showing just how resilient it is 💪.
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