GM GM 🫡 , Strategy Master here, bringing you the only crypto newsletter that skips the irrelevant news and delivers the most likely Bitcoin trade scenario.
I know what you are thinking - you are feeling the FEAR. And guess what? That’s exactly what the market wants from you before it continues to the upside!
Be ready 🐺
So, will we go up in this cycle?
Short answer: Yes.
Huh… feeling blessed. But when?
Check below 👇
Quick Recap
Bitcoin is approaching its 60-day cycle bottom and is about to bounce (short-term). As I mentioned in my TradingView idea [link], Bitcoin is in the zone of tapping that 60-day cycle low. Now, we’re waiting for confirmation that the low has officially formed.
Want to know how to spot the bottom and the upside confirmation? 🥸
Am I rushing to deploy capital right now?
Nope.
Did I grab a small piece of BTC at $56,500?
Yup.
Okay, Strategy Master, but how big will the bounce be?
Great question! Let’s take a look at the Weekly Bitcoin cycle. Bitcoin printed its previous weekly low on July 5th around $55,700 and rallied to $69,000, showing a strong start to the Weekly Cycle (as expected, per Cycle theory).
But then, boom—it quickly dropped to $50,000. That's a sign of a Weekly Cycle failure.
Wait, what’s a Weekly Cycle Failure?!
A Weekly Cycle failure happens when the price begins its normal climb, but instead of steadily rising (or surging if we’re in a super bullish market), it sharply drops before reaching its cycle peak.
Check out the chart below to see it in action.
Failed 🥹
See? 😶🌫️
Weekly cycles go from top to bottom, even in bear markets. Following Cycle theory helps you preserve capital - even in the wildest bear markets. You simply sell at the cycle top (even if profits aren’t sky-high). ✅
But sometimes, on rare occasions, a Weekly Cycle breaks without warning. When that happens, prices drop fast, and it can take 1-3 months to return to the same level.
Some examples of these rare moments:
- FTX Crash (Nov 2018) 💥
- COVID Crash (March 2020) 🧑⚕️
- 2021 Bitcoin Bull-run Top 🔼
FTX Crash in November 2018
Corona Crash in March 2020
2021 Bitcoin Bull-run Top
Right now, we’ve had two Weekly Cycle failures in a row, which is unusual for Bitcoin. That makes short-to-medium-term investments tricky. In short, if the weekly cycle breaks, it’s smarter to sell at the daily cycle top and wait for the next Weekly low.
Okay, enough talk, Strategy Master! Just give me the most probable scenario—that’s why I’m still reading!
Sure thing. Here’s what I’m seeing... 📈 👇️
Two Potential Bitcoin scenarios until December 2024
Wait, didn’t you promise the MOST PROBABLE scenario? Now you're showing me two possibilities?
Good catch! 😃 Let me explain.
As I mentioned earlier, a Weekly Cycle failure typically points to a price drop. But here's the twist - Bitcoin has been holding strong around the $56,000 level for 182 days! 🧑🚀
This suggests we might see another Weekly Cycle of sideways action and consolidation, lasting until the next Weekly Cycle low in December, before the bull market kicks back in. 👩🚀
But there’s a wildcard: we could also see a quick recovery with a left-translated cycle, leading to a blow-off top by the end of the year. This could push prices to a potential high of $100,000! 💸