Good Monday, everyone! 🌞 Strategy Master here, your favorite Bitcoin Cycle Analyst. Isn’t it satisfying when an analysis you provided just a week ago plays out exactly as predicted? 💥
Bitcoin hit its mid-cycle low last Thursday, confirmed the low on Friday, and triggered a Buy signal in the 12-hour timeframe. It seems like a textbook Cycle play—but the real test is coming over the next few days. 🔥
Strategy Master, you mentioned “One final push” in the title. What do you mean? 😶
Glad you asked! But before we dive into the details, take a moment to look at this Bitcoin chart. 💹
When we examine the 1W (Weekly) Cycle indicator for Bitcoin, things seem to be progressing smoothly. 📈 We nearly hit the 20-level around September 16, signaling a cycle bottom, and have been rising steadily since then, showing strength in Bitcoin’s weekly cycle. 🚀
That all sounds great, right?
But there's a catch: ⚠️ the red line is creeping toward our upper target of 80. 📊 This means we're likely to see one final push upward before this cycle peaks (note: the 1W indicator can remain above 80 for a few weeks, indicating a strong market). 💪
At the same time, however, the 3D (3-Day) indicator has already topped at the mid-cycle high and is currently on its way down. 📉 This is where the true test for Bitcoin lies: if the price holds steady or even rises over the next 12–15 days while the 3D indicator drops below 20 and resets, we could see a strong final push in November. 🌕📅
The less optimistic scenario? 😬
If the 3D indicator drags the price down, it might cut short the 1W cycle’s upward momentum, which could prevent Bitcoin from hitting a higher peak. 📉 In this case, we may experience a few weeks of downside (I know, I know—you don’t want to hear that). 😔
Let’s look at some past instances when the 3D indicator topped while the weekly cycle was still climbing. 🔍
On August 1st, 2024, the 3D Cycle indicator topped while the 1W was still pushing higher. 📈 The price attempted to retest previous highs in the days that followed but failed. ❌ Bitcoin then dropped 20%, signaling a 1W Cycle failure.
This is a textbook example of how a falling 3D indicator can spell trouble for Bitcoin. ⚠️ For this reason, it's generally not advisable to enter the market when the 3D indicator is trending downward. 🚫
A similar situation occurred in June 2024. 📆 After a price rise following the 60-day cycle bottom in May, the 3D indicator signaled a mid-cycle top, which eventually marked the 60-day cycle peak. The price deteriorated, falling into the next 60-day cycle bottom at the start of July. 📉
Do you want another example with the same results? 🤔
In March 2024, we saw a repeat. 📅 On March 5th, the 3D Cycle topped, but the 1W cycle was still climbing. 📈 Bitcoin made a final push to the upside, reaching its 60-day cycle peak before plummeting to its bottom by March 19th. Although the 3D indicator reset by April 2nd, the 1W cycle had already topped, leaving no more room for upward momentum. The price collapsed, bottoming out in May. 📉
Wait. Are We About to Collapse?? 😱
Not necessarily. Take a look at this chart. ✨
This reminds me of the current cycle of development
In October 2023, the 3D Cycle indicator also topped, but instead of a major correction, Bitcoin experienced only minor turbulence (a mid-cycle low). 🌊 The price then continued to climb, and the 3D indicator reversed, sending Bitcoin into two consecutive bullish 60-day cycles. A reversal of the 3D indicator, combined with a growing 1W indicator, can result in a highly bullish Bitcoin market. 💥
Entering the market mid-cycle can be risky. ⚠️ To reduce risk, it’s best to wait for the 3D indicator to reverse and ensure that all three cycle indicators are pointing upward. 📊 (Note: we didn’t cover the 1D indicator in this edition.)
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Soon, you’ll be able to receive real-time alerts about cycle reversals. ⏰ I'm working on an automated script that will notify you when all Cycle indicators align for Bitcoin and major altcoin pairs. Be sure to follow the upcoming editions! 📅✨