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Bitcoin is nearing its 60-day cycle bottom. Why does this matter? 🥸
For long-term holders, it’s a signal that Bitcoin’s strength is about to shine with a bounce. For traders like us, it’s a golden opportunity for a profitable trade. 🪙
What’s next?
"Strategy Master, should I buy now?"
Well, that depends on your risk appetite. Technically, we’re on day 58 of the 60-day cycle. Some cycles are shorter, some longer. Catching the exact bottom is amazing, but it’s no easy task.
"Got it, Master… but how can I know if the cycle has ended?"
Here are 5 signs:
- 📈 The price closes above the 10-day Moving Average.
- 📊 An increase in volume (such as a bigger sell-off).
- 💥 A crash occurs, followed by a retest of the resistance line, and then another crash forms the final cycle low.
- 🔄 The lowest point is retested with good volume, but no new low is established.
- 🚀 The price moves above the current resistance zone.
Now, let’s see how the current potential cycle bottom stacks up:
- The 10-day moving average is at $61,000, but the price is still below it. ❌
- A slight increase in volume is noticeable. 🙂
- We saw a crash to $57,300, but no retest of the resistance line and no second crash yet. 🙂
- The lowest point hasn’t been retested yet. ❌
- The price hasn’t climbed above the current resistance zone. ❌
As you can see, confirming a cycle bottom is only possible after the fact. Right now, none of these conditions have been fully met. 🙅
However, buying close to the cycle bottom often leads to positive returns within days or weeks. The first days of a new cycle are usually marked by a big green candle. 💚 💹
Take the previous 60-day cycle bottom on July 5th, for example. 📑 It was fully confirmed a week later, on July 13th, when the price crossed the resistance line at $58,630.
Let’s check the 5 conditions:
- The 10-day moving average was crossed at $57,538, confirmed with a closed candle. ✅
- Volume increased for three days straight, peaking on July 5th. ✅
- The price crashed to $58,600 on June 24th, tested the resistance line at $63,000 on July 1st, and the final cycle low was established after another crash on July 5th at $53,700. ✅
- The lows were retested with good volume at $54,300 on July 8th, with no new low formed. ✅
- The price went above and closed above the previous resistance zone on July 13th. ✅
By July 13th, all five conditions were met, signaling that the cycle had ended. 🍾
"But Strategy Master, isn’t it too late to buy $BTC if it’s already up almost 10% from the lows?"
Short answer: No. You can start buying Bitcoin once at least 1-2 conditions are met to capture that initial price momentum in the new cycle.
Longer answer: Still no! Bitcoin Cycles last around 60 days, with the first part often seeing price increases. Once you’re confident the cycle has ended, it’s safe to buy.
"Gotcha, Strategy Master, but what about Altcoins?"
Altcoins usually bounce when Bitcoin does. 📊
What’s even more important for Altcoins is the Weekly Cycle. Aligning the bottom of the Weekly Cycle of "TOTAL3" (total market cap of tokens excluding BTC & ETH) with the bottom of Bitcoin’s 60-day cycle often leads to an altcoin rally. 🚀
Rally incoming 😉
"Got it, Strategy Master… but I don’t want to stare at charts all day waiting for the Bitcoin cycle to happen. What should I do?"
Good news! I’m launching a Telegram group that will automatically send signals when a coin is about to reverse against the Bitcoin pair (which means it could gain even more in $ value). 💸