GM! 🌟 Strategy Master here - the only crypto newsletter that accurately analyzes Cycles and predicts pullbacks 📉, all at no cost (crazy, right? 🤯).
If you’re a new reader, prepare to change the way you see the crypto market 🚀 and finally start making consistent profits.
If you’ve been with us for a while, you're likely wondering how global events 🌍 - like Bitcoin's correlation to the situation in Iran - tie into today's market.
Let’s get right into it! 📊✨
Bitcoin will soon approach its mid-cycle low
Bitcoin Nears Its Mid-Cycle Low 📉
By now, you’ve probably heard the news about Iran's attack on Israel, and maybe you’ve linked this to the recent Bitcoin dip. People fear war, so they sell Bitcoin, right? 😟
But here's the reality: cycles control the market 🔄, not the headlines 📰.
We could point to unemployment data 📊, China's monetary policy or even missile strikes 🚀.
But in reality, the cycles are in control, and the narrative is appended to justify the correction 🔍.
If the mid-cycle lows were not due, the narratives would be framed in a bullish context to explain away the upside 📈.
Strategy Master will keep tracking these lows and provide you with the most probable Bitcoin scenarios. Check out the 60-day Bitcoin chart below! 📉🔍✨
Why so many indicators?
Bitcoin hit its 60-day cycle low at the start of September. Now, it's approaching its mid-cycle low, which typically happens around Day 30. Buying in the middle of a cycle is trickier and riskier, so I always recommend waiting for the next 60-day cycle bottom to make a move. It’s safer, and the odds of making a profit increase. 🤑
As always… patience🐺
On the chart above, the 1D (Daily, blue line) Cycle indicator shows we're in the buying zone, while the 3D (3-Day, violet line) indicator has just topped and is trending down.
There are two potential scenarios left for this cycle. Yes, two—and since we’re mid-cycle, things get riskier for Bitcoin. Here’s what could happen:
Scenario #1: Cycle Topped at Day 23, We're Heading Down
That’s not our preferred scenario
If this plays out, Bitcoin may print a failed daily cycle 📉 in the coming days, sinking towards the next 60-day cycle low, possibly around $50,000 or even lower. That might sound hard to believe given the recent market excitement 🎉 and the famous "Uptober" 🍂.
But that brings us to another common myth: Bitcoin Seasonality. People say Bitcoin always struggles in September and soars in October 🌟, but the real force at play is cycles 🔄, not seasons.
Let’s look at the last two Septembers for some clarity! 🔍
September 2023 signaled start of the bull run
September 2023 signaled the start of a bull run 🐂. The 1W (Weekly) Cycle indicator showed a clear bottom ⬇️ by the end of the month, setting Bitcoin up for a bullish trend✨.
September 2022 was in the last declining portion of the previous 4 Year Cycle
September 2022 was the final decline in the last 4-year cycle 📉. Bitcoin dropped just 3.8% 📉💔, despite the falling Weekly Cycle 📊, and by October, the 1W cycle bottomed, setting the stage for a new 4-year cycle 🔄—until the FTX crash in November threw everything off 🚨.
Alright, Strategy Master, I Get It 🤔
People don’t fully understand cycles . They rely on “Seasonality” 🌱 or look to news headlines about "missiles" 🚀 and "attacks" 💥 to explain Bitcoin’s behavior. But it’s the cycles that really drive the price 📈.
So, what does the 1W cycle tell us about Bitcoin now? 🔍🤔
And here we come to scenario #2! 📊✨
Scenario #2: Consolidation, Then a Right-Translated 60-Day Cycle
The 1W (Weekly) Cycle looks bullish
The 1W Cycle (red line) 🔴 is our best guide for the intermediate trend, and right now, it's pointing upward . This suggests we shouldn’t worry too much about the short-term dip. Meanwhile, the 3D Cycle (violet line) 🟣 is trending down, so we’re likely to see some consolidation over the next week or so—maybe 3-5 days 🗓️.
I know you don’t love hearing both bullish and bearish scenarios for Bitcoin—it can feel confusing 🤔. But my goal is to give you the most probable outcome, not just one side of the story . That said, I don’t recommend entering the market mid-cycle 🚫. The direction isn’t clear right now, so understanding the cycles and their likely scenarios is key to making better decisions 🔍.